Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.879447 14.733717 16.729972 19.035084 21.619529 24.423771 27.692765
2025-06-01 10.075845 12.574434 15.472397 19.066570 23.387996 28.399036 34.631056
2025-06-08 8.512885 11.241425 14.561580 18.870510 24.283052 30.822239 39.282286
2025-06-15 7.463487 10.366174 14.051939 19.030026 25.525813 33.656244 44.535891
2025-06-22 6.815839 9.885774 13.928143 19.575159 27.182781 36.988933 50.481407
2025-06-29 6.021538 9.104663 13.307768 19.370042 27.785917 38.935753 54.678422
2025-07-06 5.133721 8.087100 12.252688 18.450684 27.308044 39.355845 56.790516
2025-07-13 4.786979 7.809979 12.199075 18.903644 28.721014 42.371269 62.532874
2025-07-20 4.457257 7.519933 12.090944 19.249290 29.973813 45.194978 68.108768
2025-07-27 4.066004 7.092980 11.736083 19.188067 30.606104 47.139896 72.494255
2025-08-03 3.682759 6.639482 11.298263 18.956621 30.949263 48.654478 76.291873
2025-08-10 3.397854 6.318832 11.038715 18.972798 31.650892 50.705606 80.939544
2025-08-17 3.170308 6.080314 10.901240 19.185457 32.687815 53.338244 86.628435
2025-08-24 2.920500 5.779504 10.637030 19.171078 33.359272 55.439068 91.599246
2025-08-31 2.668830 5.449023 10.292515 18.990039 33.734532 57.073418 95.887412
2025-09-07 2.497784 5.249593 10.155842 19.144816 34.657246 59.594593 101.648967
2025-09-14 2.402727 5.184168 10.248021 19.694903 36.259695 63.258965 109.358448
2025-09-21 2.205327 4.900910 9.924803 19.487964 36.556404 64.804830 113.701150
2025-09-28 1.930938 4.436425 9.230473 18.563835 35.553362 64.150541 114.402522
2025-10-05 1.857348 4.375564 9.289848 19.019186 36.990225 67.619972 122.045139
2025-10-12 1.775547 4.289475 9.293171 19.366745 38.245822 70.824094 129.350585
2025-10-19 1.653433 4.104796 9.088939 19.305178 38.751444 72.754437 134.557771
2025-10-26 1.523336 3.889487 8.806651 19.072475 38.924576 74.105103 138.808152